What's the Probability?
1D Wrating Calculator
Calculate the expected win probability between two Wratings using the standard Elo logistic curve.
The Rule of Thumb
| Wrating Advantage | Win Probability |
|---|---|
| +50 pts | 57% |
| +100 pts | 64% |
| +200 pts | 76% |
| +400 pts | 91% |
Under the Hood: 1D vs. 2D Math
The 1D Estimate (Elo Curve): This calculator uses a standard logistic curve. In this model, only the difference in score matters. A 200-point advantage yields the exact same win probability whether the match is 3000 vs 2800 or 1500 vs 1300. It assumes both players have an "average" level of consistency.
The 2D Calculation (Gaussian/OpenSkill): Wratings' core algorithm is 2-dimensional. It tracks both a player's proven skill and the system's confidence in that skill (volatility).
The Difference: In a 2D calculation, the interplay between skill and confidence drastically changes the odds. A highly volatile player fighting an 1800-rated opponent has a mathematically different win probability than a highly consistent veteran fighting that same opponent, even if their Wratings are identical. Learn more about 2D math in the FAQ.