What's the Probability?
1D Wrating Calculator
Calculate the expected win probability between two Wratings using the standard Elo logistic curve.
The Rule of Thumb
| Wrating Advantage | Win Probability |
|---|---|
| +100 pts | 60% |
| +300 pts | 76% |
| +600 pts | 91% |
| +900 pts | 97% |
Under the Hood: 1D vs. 2D Math
The 1D Estimate (Elo Curve): This calculator uses the standard Elo logistic curve, calibrated to Wratings' rating distribution. In this model, only the difference in score matters. A 300-point advantage yields the exact same win probability whether the match is 3000 vs 2700 or 1500 vs 1200. A +600 point advantage — roughly one standard deviation in the global competitive pool — corresponds to a 91% win probability. It assumes both players have an "average" level of consistency.
The 2D Calculation (Gaussian/OpenSkill): Wratings' core algorithm is 2-dimensional. It tracks both a player's proven skill and the system's confidence in that skill (volatility).
The Difference: In a 2D calculation, the interplay between skill and confidence drastically changes the odds. A highly volatile player fighting an 1800-rated opponent has a mathematically different win probability than a highly consistent veteran fighting that same opponent, even if their Wratings are identical. Learn more about 2D math in the FAQ.