What's the Probability?
1D Wrating Calculator
Calculate the expected win probability between two Wratings using the standard Elo logistic curve.
The Rule of Thumb
| Wrating Advantage | Win Probability |
|---|---|
| +100 pts | 60% |
| +300 pts | 76% |
| +600 pts | 91% |
| +900 pts | 97% |
Under the Hood: 1D vs. 2D Math
The 1D Estimate (Elo Curve): This calculator uses a simple Elo-style logistic curve. In this comparison, only the difference in public Wrating matters. A 300-point advantage yields the same displayed probability whether the numbers are 3000 versus 2700 or 1500 versus 1200. In this illustrative curve, a +600-point difference corresponds to a 91% probability. This is an explanatory comparison, not the Wratings rating engine.
The 2D Calculation (Gaussian/OpenSkill): The selected players' raw OpenSkill values supply a model-based projection that incorporates both the model's skill estimate and uncertainty.
The Difference: In a 2D calculation, the interplay between skill and confidence drastically changes the odds. A highly volatile player fighting an 1800-rated opponent has a mathematically different win probability than a highly consistent veteran fighting that same opponent, even if their Wratings are identical. Learn more about 2D math in the FAQ.